2025 Oscar predictions: who I think will win in all 23 Oscar categories

We've gone through the Golden Globes, countless critics awards, the BAFTAs and the guilds. Now it's time for the main event, the 2025 Oscars. As the Academy votes on what they believe are the best and most accomplished movies of 2024 — from Anora to Wicked — I've compiled my own Oscar predictions of what I believe will win on Sunday, March 2.

Below you'll find my predicted winner in all 23 categories, as well as a little explanation as to why I'm going with that pick and what other nominees could play spoiler when the envelope is officially opened. My best ever scores were when I just got three categories wrong (20/23 in 2022, 21/24 in 2018); can I do better than that this year?

We'll find out on Sunday, March 2, starting at 7 pm ET/4 pm PT. But in the meantime, here are my full slate of Oscar predictions

Best Actor

If I was voting, I would be between Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown and Colman Domingo for Sing Sing, but guessing what the Academy might do, I think they give Adrien Brody his second Oscar for his work in The Brutalist. Chalamet is my top alternative, while Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice is the dark horse here. Predicted winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Best Actress

It was a great year of leading actress performances. While Mikey Madison for Anora and Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here could play spoilers, I think the narrative around Demi Moore and her superb performance in The Substance is too good for the Oscars to pass up. Predicted winner: Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

This one has felt pretty settled for a while, as Kieran Culkin has been cleaning up with critics and other award shows for his performance in A Real Pain. I expect him to continue with a win at the Oscars, though if there’s an upset to be had I believe it lies in Edward Norton’s performance in A Complete Unknown. Predicted winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress

Another one where the writing appears to be on the wall, and it reads Zoe Saldana. While Emilia Perez has taken a hit in the lead up to the Oscars because of controversial past comments resurfacing from star Karla Sofia Gascon, that shouldn’t impact Saldana’s crowning for some of the best work of her career. Predicted winner: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Best Adapted Screenplay

I believe that this could be A Complete Unknown’s best chance to win an award on Oscar night, but I think the Academy opts for the twisty adaptation of the best-seller Conclave from Peter Straughan, as many other award bodies have done so far. Predicted winner: Peter Straughan, Conclave

Best Original Screenplay

I can legitimately make a case for four of the five Original Screenplay nominees to win (sorry September 5, I still love you). A win of Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain or Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance would be recognition of career best work; a win for The Brutalist would probably be a strong sign of a potentially dominant night. But I think Sean Baker’s beloved comedy wins the Academy’s heart here. Predicted winner: Sean Baker, Anora

Best Animated Feature

This feels like a two horse race between The Wild Robot and Flow. Flow made the early statement with a win at the Golden Globes, and with the growing contingency of international voters it could repeat that feat here. However, The Wild Robot earned two additional nominations for Sound and Score, and I think that wide-ranging support amongst voters will help it pull out the win. Predicted winner: The Wild Robot

Best Documentary

I admittedly have not seen any of the nominated documentaries this year, so I’m just going with what appears to be the betting favorite, and that is with No Other Land. One of the most awarded docs of the year, the movie depicts a growing alliance between a Palestinian activist and an Israeli journalist. Predicted winner: No Other Land

Best International Film

Even before the controversy surrounding Emilia Perez broke out, I’m Still Here was building some momentum on the awards circuit and became a dark horse to win. Now, it is the presumed favorite and gives the Academy a chance to award acclaimed filmmaker Walter Salles. Emilia Perez could still win, and if I’m asked to peg a dark horse, Flow could get some votes if people think it should get some recognition but went with The Wild Robot in animation. Predicted winner: I’m Still Here

Best Cinematography

Cinematography is a pretty competitive category between The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two and Nosferatu. Dune: Part One won in this category a few years ago, but the sequel has had a harder time building awards momentum despite (in my opinion) being the better movie. Ultimately I think this comes down to the gothic beauty of Nosferatu or the 70mm scope of The Brutalist. I’ll go with the latter. Predicted winner: The Brutalist

Best Costume Design

Does the Oscar go to Elphaba’s iconic hat, Nosferatu’s cape, the cardinals’ robes, Roman gladiator armor or Bob Dylan’s sunglasses? Of course there’s more to the great costume work of all these nominees, just cherry picking. As for who wins, I’m going with Wicked. Predicted winner: Wicked

Best Editing

A lot of Oscar pundits say a Best Editing nomination is a big sign of a movie’s chances of winning Best Picture. That’s proven true as eight of the 10 Oscars has seen the eventual Best Picture winner be nominated. Pretty much the five biggest contenders for the top prize are all nominated this year, so who am I going with? I’ll go with the taut political thrills of Conclave. (FYI, the conversion of the Best Editing winner going on to win Best Picture doesn’t have as good a precedent recently, as only two out of 10 have done so; though they were the last two, Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All at Once). Predicted winner: Conclave

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

2016’s Suicide Squad is an Oscar winner thanks to its Best Makeup and Hairstyling win. None of this year’s nominees stick out like that one. So who wins? Give me The Substance and its incredible body horror effects. Predicted winner: The Substance

Best Music (Original Score)

Ever since I heard the music of The Brutalist in the movie’s first trailer, I just knew that it was destined to be Oscar nominated. How it plays with the images of the movie really helps give it an epic scale. So, for that reason I’m making it my pick to take the Oscar for best score. Predicted winner: The Brutalist

Best Music (Original Song)

Diane Warren is once again competing for her first competitive Oscar win after 16 nominations (this time for her song in The Six Triple Eight), but “El Mal” from Emilia Perez has been taking home the prize practically every time it’s up for competition. I don’t think that will change on Oscar night. Predicted winner: Emilia Perez, “El Mal”

Best Production Design

The recreation of 18th century Gothic styles in Nosferatu or the futuristic look of Dune are all great, but bringing the world of Oz back to the screen in incredible new ways is enough for me to make Wicked my pick here. Predicted winner: Wicked

Best Sound

Like so many of the below-the-line categories, it feels like it is coming down to Dune: Part Two and Wicked. Perhaps just on the back of “Defying Gravity” alone, I’m giving the edge to Wicked and making it my pick for Best Sound. Predicted winner: Wicked

Best Visual Effects

It feels wrong to only give Dune: Part Two one Oscar, but that’s where things feel like they are going. Its closest competitor here is probably Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, but the Academy has failed to recognize the franchise in the past in this category despite revolutionary work; I don’t think the fourth entry is the one that is going to break that trend. Predicted winner: Dune: Part Two

Best Shorts

I unfortunately wasn’t able to see most of the Oscar-nominated shorts this year, so these are going to be entirely shots in the dark, so I’ll just group them together:

Best Animated Short predicted winner: Wander to Wonder
Best Documentary Short predicted winner: I Am Ready, Warden
Best Live Action Short predicted winner: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Best Directing

The idea of Best Director and Best Picture not going to the same movie has been a much more common trend in recent years, as six of the last 15 Best Director winners did not see their movie go on to win Best Picture. That could happen again, as The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet is a popular pick. But after winning the Directors Guild of America award, which has seen its last four winners go on to repeat at the Oscars, I’m going with Sean Baker winning for Anora. Predicted winner: Sean Baker, Anora

Best Picture

And as you may have guessed from my Best Director prediction, I believe this is a year when there is no split between Best Director and Best Picture, as I see Anora taking home the top prize of the night. After it seemed like this award season couldn’t settle on a clear front-runner, Anora’s big wins at the Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild and Producers Guild on February 7 and 8 changed that. Anora brings it home as the 97th Best Picture winner. Predicted winner: Anora

Make your own predictions for the Oscars in the comments below, and watch the 2025 Oscars on Sunday, March 2, on ABC at 7 pm ET/4 pm PT and streaming on Hulu.