Kevin Costner or not, my Yellowstone season 5 finale prediction is one Taylor Sheridan has likely been planning all along

When it was announced that Kevin Costner would not be returning for the second half of Yellowstone season 5 and that the popular western series would conclude with that new batch of episodes it was a shock to many. There was immediate speculation about how Costner’s John Dutton, who had been the main character on the series since day one, would be written out and how Taylor Sheridan would decide to bring his story to a conclusion.

The answer to the first part of that question was answered quickly in Yellowstone season 5 episode 9, the first of the second half and first without Costner — John Dutton was assassinated by ex special ops hired by Sarah Atwood (Dawn Olivieri). And as of this Sunday, December 15, we’ll get the answer on how Sheridan chooses to wrap up the fight for the Yellowstone with the possible series finale (reports indicate that Kelly Reilly, who plays Beth, and Cole Hauser, who plays Rip, have closed deals to continue on with their characters, but it looks like that will be a spinoff series, meaning Yellowstone as we know could still officially be coming to an end).

Yellowstone season 5 episode 14 is titled “Life Is A Promise” and has the logline that reads: “The fate of the Yellowstone Dutton Ranch is revealed.” But if I’m right in my prediction of what will happen in the Yellowstone season 5 finale, then the fate of the ranch may have been revealed already and was likely the planned ending for the show whether or not Costner was still involved.

After Kayce (Luke Grimes) shared his plan in Yellowstone season 5 episode 13 to give the land away, I predict that the ranch will be given to Thomas Rainwater (Gil Birmingham) and his tribe, returning it to the ancestral owners, who will be in the best position to preserve it as is for future generations. My reasoning behind this is entirely based on a scene from the Yellowstone prequel series 1883.

A Paramount Plus original series that came out back in 2021, 1883 followed James Dutton (Tim McGraw), his wife Margaret (Faith Hill) and their children Elsa (Isabel May) and John (Audie Rick) as they headed west to find land they could call their own. In the 1883 finale, Elsa is dying from an arrow wound. Knowing he can’t save her, James says where they bury her is where they are going to settle.

In Elsa’s final days, they come across an indigenous tribe, whose leader Spotted Eagle (played by Graham Greene) tells James of a valley they describe as “paradise.” The two strike a deal for the Duttons to bury Elsa and settle there, while Spotted Eagle’s people will be allowed to continue hunting there. Spotted Eagle has one other thing though — he tells James that “in seven generations” his people will rise up and take the land back. James doesn’t argue, saying they “can have it.”

That scene was written, shot and aired years before we knew that Costner would be departing the show, but it appears to clearly foreshadow this idea that the indigenous people reclaim the Yellowstone ranch. And right on time, too. Generations are considered 20-30 years, so if we do some simple math, seven generations would be about 140 years. From 1883 to 2024, 141 years have passed. It’s all lining up.

If this does come to pass, it would also be a fitting ending for the show. While Rainwater was one of the main antagonists in Yellowstone season 1, over the years he has become somewhat of an ally for the Duttons, particularly Kayce. This would bring the relationship between the Duttons and the indigenous people full circle.

Of course, there is likely going to be a lot more going on in the Yellowstone season 5 finale than just a potential gifting of the ranch, especially as reports say the episode is one hour and 26 minutes long and is being directed by Sheridan himself. Outside of the ranch, Jamie’s fate is likely to be determined (can he escape jail time?). Meanwhile, Rainwater still has to deal with the pipeline being built on the reservation, which he already previewed as being something his people need to rise up and fight back against. It should be an exciting Yellowstone season 5 (series?) finale.

Yellowstone season 5 episode 14 airs Sunday, December 15, at 8 pm ET/PT on Paramount Network; in the UK it’ll stream on Paramount Plus starting December 16.